10%, China’s GDP Growth in Next Year

October 11, 2006 at 10:44 pm (China, Economics)

Next year China’s GDP will grow as much as 10 percent, said China Academy of Social Science.

This number, generated by China’s government owned think tank, is comfortable to the government, who has been worried about inflation and overheating, and have been managing to cool the economy while at the same time to avoid a stagflation. On the other hand, 10 is also a number Chinese like to see, and it’s easy to remember.

The problem is whether this is plausible, or even close to being plausible. The government, however, is good at generating comfortable figures. So even the economy gets hard-landing or overheating, I am pretty sure the public figure will be, well, around 10.

More projections from the academy: $150 billion, trade surplus in this year; $120 billion, trade surplus in 2007, quite soothing. 54 percent and 60 percent, investment rates this and next year, not so happy. 1.3 percent and 11. percent, CPI in this and next year, very delightful.


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